Marin to lose in photo finish
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Published 24 February 2023
In Sanna Marin’s first election as incumbent PM, her Social Democrats are struggling to gain momentum in the polls. What is the probability of another Scandinavian government (after Sweden) flipping from centre-left to centre-right? And what coalitions are most likely to form after the elections?
Key Takeaways
Three parties still have a real chance of winning the most seats. Besides Marin’s Social Democrats (SDP), Petteri Orpo’s National Coalition Party (KOK) and Riikka Purra’s Finns Party (PS) are the other contenders for the top spot.
Opinion polls show a small lead for the National Coalition Party. However, based on current polling, the odds of another Marin premiership are slim.
A centre-right coalition is the most probable outcome of the election. Nevertheless, several options are still on the table. We use a coalition formation prediction model to rank their likelihood and argue that the risk of substantial policy change is minor (though it does exist).
Who is who? Mapping the electoral landscape
Figure 1: Finnish party positions with current party seat share determining bubble size
Eight parties currently hold more than one seat in Finland’s 200-seat national parliament. The three major parties contending for the prime minister position in the April parliamentary election are the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP), the centre-right National Coalition Party (KOK) and the far-right Finns Party (PS). Figure 1 maps these three, as well as five minor parties, based on their economic left-right position and a score based on their position on a liberty vs authority axis.
As mentioned, the current election has turned into a three-horse race between the SDP, KOK, and PS. A short note on each of these below:
SDP
Context: As the major force on the Finnish left, the SDP is the largest party in the government coalition with 40 seats. After its previous prime minister Antti Rinne resigned, party prodigy Sanna Marin made headlines around the world by becoming Finland’s youngest PM at 34. Marin now faces her first election as PM, and despite a row about a leaked video of her partying with friends, she still appears to be much more of an electoral strength than a weakness to her party.
Platform: The SDP’s programme includes promises to invest in education, labour-market activation and welfare provision. The party opposes large budget cuts to reduce the deficit, hinting at higher capital and inheritance taxes instead. On climate, the party has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2035.
KOK
Context: The KOK is the second largest opposition party, currently holding 37 seats in parliament. Leader Petteri Orpo has framed himself as the main alternative to another Marin premiership, focusing on a message of economic competence and fiscal responsibility.
Platform: KOK has emphasised the need for lower taxes as well as fiscal restraint. While cutting public spending, the party intends to stimulate entrepreneurship and small businesses to bolster the economy. A notable difference with the SDP is that a KOK-led government would likely be more pro-nuclear and open to investing in emerging technologies in the energy sector.
PS
Context: The far-right Finns Party, led by Riikka Purra, is the largest opposition party with 39 seats. Purra convincingly won the party leadership election in 2021, and is now looking to consolidate the status of the Finns Party as a major force in Finnish politics with a third strong election result in a row.
Platform: The Finns Party programme is tough on immigration and notably more Eurosceptic than other manifestos. The party proposes cutting back on excessive climate policy measures to protect the agricultural sector against what they perceive as unnecessary government interference. Their plans are also tough on crime and fiscally conservative.
Other than the three major parties, the Finnish party system also includes the agrarian Centre Party (KESK), the Green Party (VIHR), the Left Alliance (VAS), the Swedish People’s Party (SFP) and the Christian Democratic Party (KD). As Figure 1 illustrates, VIHR and VAS are progressive left-wing parties. KESK and the SFP both offer slightly more centre-right options, focusing on rural voters and Swedish minority voters respectively, while the KD is the most conservative party running.
What do the polls say?
The Finnish public polling market is very small. Just two providers - Kantar and Taloustutkimus - publish one set of vote share estimates per month. Additionally, not a single pollster provides constituency-level estimates. This is important, as Finnish MPs are elected within regional multi-member constituencies. Different levels of geographical concentration of vote shares may lead to some parties winning significantly more or significantly fewer seats than their vote share would suggest.
Figure 2: Polling trend lines grouped by pollster
With these limitations in mind, Figure 2 visualises trends in recent Finnish polling for each of the two pollsters. At the top, the SDP, KOK and the Finns Party are within a polling error of each other. Small margins matter here, as the party finishing first will be able to take the initiative in the post-election process of coalition formation.
The most striking trend in Figure 2 is the rise of the Finns Party over the last months. Although good micro-level data to confirm this claim does not exist, it appears that the party has managed to draw voters from KOK and KESK, the main other right-wing forces. The rise of the Finns Party is confirmed by both Kantar and Taloustutkimus, although the latter does not currently place the Finns ahead of the SDP.
Finnish pollsters have performed quite well in past elections, so there is good reason to believe these estimates accurately reflect the state of the race. However, it is worth noting that in the two most recent elections, Finnish pollsters have consistently underestimated the strength of the Finns Party. In 2019, polls published in the month of the election underestimated their vote share by an average of 2.5%. This is not surprising - pollsters across Europe have struggled to poll far-right voters. Therefore, there is a risk that - without methodological improvements - the Finns Party will perform significantly better than polls would suggest.
What coalitions are most likely to form after the elections?
In a fragmented party system like Finland’s, government power is ultimately distributed through a process of coalition formation. Although the election results shape the universe of available coalition options, other factors matter too. Using the political science literature on the determinants of coalition formation, we built a model to predict the most likely coalition options to form after the election.
In a nutshell, this model does two things. First, it uses polling data to predict the number of seats each party is expected to hold after the election based on historical vote-to-seat ratios. Second, it uses data on party positions (from the ParlGov database) to calculate the ideological distance between all pairs of parties. Essentially, we assume that an “optimal” coalition - from the perspective of its leading/largest party - is a coalition that is as ideologically homogeneous as possible. Logically, the less parties disagree, the easier it will be to govern together. From this, it also follows that parties should prefer a coalition with fewer parties over a coalition with more parties. The more actors involved, the harder collective bargaining processes about policies will become.
Table 1: Predicted most likely coalition options (majority coalitions only)
The model also includes an element of “political reality”. Several parties, notably including SDP, have pledged not to enter into a coalition with the Finns Party. These coalition options have therefore been filtered out of the model.
Based on the above mentioned conditions, the five most likely majority coalitions are listed in Table 1. As the Table illustrates, all most likely coalitions are a) led by the KOK and b) need to include one of SDP or PS, the other two major parties. From KOK’s perspective, the optimal coalition is a three-party coalition with the SDP and KESK. Given KESK’s relative proximity to KOK in policy terms as well as their substantial estimated seat size, they are likely to be KOK’s junior coalition partner of choice. To reach 101 seats, KOK then also needs either the SDP (see option 1) or the Finns Party (see option 4). From a policy perspective, it appears that the risk of governing with the far-right Finns is currently greater. On EU policy in particular, the Finns Party and KOK are currently diametrically opposed.
Table 2: Predicted most likely coalition options (majority and minority coalitions)
From KOK’s perspective, options 2 and 5 are “inferior” versions of option 1. Both replace KESK with a left-wing junior coalition partner (VIHR or VAS) that is further removed from KOK in policy terms than KESK.
Given that Finland has a history of majority coalitions, all minority options have been classified as unlikely outcomes by the model. Removing this condition, Table 2 shows the most likely coalition options including some coalitions which - if polling is correct - would fall short of obtaining 101 seats. Notably, this generates two extra options that would be attractive to KOK, both of which use the SFP, a party that is ideologically close to KOK on many dimensions, as the junior coalition partner.
At this moment, options 1 and 3 are not that likely. With current polling, both fall just short of majority status. To be sworn into office, a Finnish coalition needs to successfully pass an investiture vote. As can be expected, minority coalitions can find it more difficult to pass a investiture vote requiring a majority of support in Parliament. Accordingly, they have been relatively rare sightings in Finnish political history. However, should SFP, SDP or KOK manage to gain an extra couple of percentage points in the polls, that could bring them the extra seats needed to make these options viable.
Finally, so what? Why does this all matter? Well, as the tables show, the next Finnish PM may well be KOK’s Petteri Orpo. However, it is likely that he will need the SDP to form a coalition, meaning that we are unlikely to see a massive shift in policy terms from the current SDP-led government. The one government that would create the preconditions for more substantial change is a KOK/PS/KESK government (see Table 1, option 4). Without dependence on the SDP, this right-wing government would be able to push through significant budget cuts and adopt a more liberal economic profile. In addition, KOK would likely be able to push government energy policy to become more pro-nuclear and open to investment in innovative approaches in the sector.
