With German Federal Elections planned for 2025, the country is gearing up for a busy election year. In September, voters in three of Germany’s eastern regions will kick off with three highly contested State elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. This note provides a brief overview of the current shape of these three State elections and their potential consequences.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face off in their first debate as their parties' nominees on Thursday, June 27th, an unusually early date for a presidential debate.

We analyse how Trump’s recent conviction might affect voter behaviour in key states…

In early June 2024, Europeans will head to the polls to elect a new Parliament. Rumours about a ‘Europe moving right’ are everywhere, but how credible is this scenario?

A month from today, over 200 million Indonesians will be eligible to vote for their next president. The crucial question in these elections in the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation? Who will succeed popular president Joko Widodo?

More people will vote in 2024 than in any previous year in human history. With so many hotly contested electoral races, this note provides a short look ahead at three major elections in 2024: the US presidential election, the UK general election, and the European Parliament election.

Approximately a year before the 2024 US presidential election, Stack published its first set of MRP model estimates for the race. As the largest poll (n=15,205) and the only MRP at this point in the cycle, the results provide an early view of the state of the race before the start of the primaries.

After a nailbiter of a first round, the current government’s Minister of the Economy Sergio Massa and libertarian outsider Javier Milei are the only ones left standing in the race for the Argentinian presidency. Polls are showing a dead heat between the two. But then again, polls have been badly wrong in this cycle. This note dives deeper into what we know and what we don’t know about the race.

On Saturday, Australians will vote in the historic ‘Indigenous Voice’ referendum, a Labor campaign promise that aims to create an advisory body of Indigenous Australians in the Australian legislative process. Despite Labor officially backing ‘Yes’ and the Liberals campaigning for ‘No’, the referendum splits the supporters of both major parties. Not unlike Brexit, as British readers will already have noted. But how accurate is that parallel?

Libertarian outsider candidate Javier Milei’s victory in the Argentinian presidential primaries was a shock to most observers. Within days, Milei skyrocketed from being considered a dark horse to the favourite to win the race for the presidency. So will Milei win? What would that mean for Argentina? And where does Milei’s support come from? We answer these questions with help from our own poll of Argentinian likely voters.

The Polish parliamentary elections of October 15th will be a tight race with large consequences for the EU. Will the United Right (PiS) secure a third term? Will Donald Tusk’s opposition take Poland back to a more pro-EU course? Or will, as many analysts expect, there be a hung Parliament?

With less than six months to go until the Republican Iowa caucus, the presidential primary race is heating up. Although early polling shows a dominant lead for Donald Trump, this note explores whether any of the other candidates could be a serious challenger to the former president.

Following major losses in the regional elections in late May, Spanish Prime Minister and leader of the Socialists (PSOE) Pedro Sánchez called a snap general election set for 23rd July.

In Rishi Sunak’s first electoral test as Prime Minister, the Conservatives suffered major losses in local elections across England. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party were the main beneficiaries, gaining over a thousand councillors between them.

In the wake of several government scandals, not least the Tempi train disaster, Greek governing party New Democracy are struggling to gain momentum in the run-up to the May elections.

In the middle of a deep economic crisis, Turkish president Erdogan faces his toughest electoral challenge in 20 years. Political anger is brewing, opposition parties have teamed up against him, and on top of that, he faces strong criticism over his handling of the destructive earthquakes that hit Southern Turkey last month.

In Sanna Marin’s first election as incumbent PM, her Social Democrats are struggling to gain momentum in the polls. What is the probability of another Scandinavian government (after Sweden) flipping from centre-left to centre-right? And what coalitions are most likely to form after the elections?

Can Labour’s Peter Obi break up the APC and PDP’s grip on power? A data-led analysis of the race to Aso Rock.