US Election: The state of the race ahead of the first debate
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Published 27 June 2024
1. Polls show a tight race nationally
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face off in their first debate as their parties' nominees on Thursday, June 27th, an unusually early date for a presidential debate. Overall the presidential race remains close even after Trump’s conviction. 538’s polling aggregator currently has Biden up nationally +0.1% against Trump, while the Real Clear Politics aggregator has Trump up +1.0% over Biden.
Stack’s recently launched polling aggregator shows a slight lead for Biden at +0.5% over Trump. Our Polling Average Hub combines and analyses publicly available polls of elections in both the UK and the USA. Our 2024 US presidential polling aggregator combines presidential election polling, both head to head polls between Trump and Biden, and multi-candidate polls. These polls are fed into our polling average model which blends them to create an average of vote share estimates for each candidate across polls accounting for among other things: the range of polling estimates, pollster house effects and sample sizes.
Right now, we think Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by a narrow 0.5% margin in a head to head race among registered voters. However, when third party and independent – RFK Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein – candidates are included, we find that Trump leads +3.2% over Biden. Overall in terms of trends in the race, our average suggests that Trump’s lead has been slowly tightening in the multi-candidate polls, his average has remained steady at around 41-42% of the vote since January while Biden’s has increased steadily from 37% in January to nearly 40% today.
Our previous MRP Presidential prediction from April found that Biden was on track for an extremely narrow election victory winning 287 electoral votes to Trump’s 251. But several key swing states have razor thin margins with Trump winning Georgia by less than a point, Biden winning Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than a point or half a point in each state - in this scenario if Trump wins Pennsylvania he would win the presidency. This was despite less sophisticated national polls suggesting President Biden trailed Donald Trump by 2-3% on average. Our next wave of polling is in the field, with results expected early July, this will provide a clearer picture of how the state of the race has changed given the slight tightening in recent polls.
2. The candidates fitness for office will be tested in the debates
The debate will be a critical test of age and mental acuity for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the oldest nominees in their parties' history. With questions raised about their mental capabilities and fitness to serve another term, the debate will be a key moment for both candidates to address (or fail to address) these concerns.
The debate will spotlight findings from our April presidential poll where voters were sceptical of both candidates' mental capacities. Only 50% of voters were somewhat or extremely confident in Biden's mental capacity, compared to 54% who said the same about Trump. However, only 24% were extremely confident in Biden, compared to 35% for Trump. Among independents, confidence was split equally, but Trump had an 11% advantage over Biden among those extremely confident in their mental capacity.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a wild card in the election who did not make the debate, received the best marks for mental capacity, with 61% of voters expressing extreme or somewhat confidence, though only 15% were extremely confident. Despite being younger than Biden and Trump at 70 years old, RFK Jr. has also faced questions about his mental fitness, making his participation and performance in any future debates crucial.
Additionally a CBS News/YouGov poll from early June found that 65% of registered voters believe Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as President, compared to 50% for Trump. The upcoming debate presents a pivotal opportunity for both candidates to demonstrate their mental sharpness and address key issues. Any gaffes or fumbles could be particularly damaging, given the existing scepticism among voters about their fitness for office.
3. The issues likely to dominate the first debate
The debate will also provide each candidate their first major opportunity to directly address the country and contrast their policies face-to-face. Our April polling found that immigration, inflation, and crime were the top issues, with crime narrowly edging out abortion.
However, abortion ranked second when considering respondents' first-choice issue, highlighting its importance for many voters. Perhaps unsurprisingly, immigration dominates for Republicans, while abortion is the top issue for Democrats. Independents consider both immigration and abortion as top issues, with Trump having an advantage on immigration and the economy, and Biden on abortion and climate change.
Trump is expected to focus on immigration and border security, key issues from his 2016 campaign. Recently, Biden has also addressed immigration with two major policies: an executive order for quick removal of illegal migrants, which has garnered some bipartisan support, and an executive action to protect illegal immigrants married to American citizens from deportation. These actions aim to balance party priorities and public opinion on immigration, showing Biden's attempt to navigate a complex issue that resonates with many voters while addressing criticisms from within his own party.
In addition to immigration, Trump is likely to emphasise crime and the economy, areas where he traditionally performs well with voters. His approach will likely include highlighting what he perceives as failures in Biden's administration, particularly focusing on inflation and economic challenges. Trump’s consistent messaging on these issues is intended to appeal to voters' immediate concerns and present himself as the stronger candidate for handling economic issues.
Abortion remains a major issue and a top motivating factor for many voters, especially with potential abortion ballot measures occuring in several key states such as Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania this election. The Biden campaign has prioritised messaging on abortion restrictions, such as the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe vs. Wade, linking it to Trump and his Supreme Court picks. Biden's campaign continues to focus on abortion through multimillion-dollar ad buys, framing the issue as a fundamental right under threat. The debate will give Biden an opportunity to solidify his stance and appeal to voters who see abortion rights as crucial. This focus on abortion aims to energise the Democratic base and sway Independents, making it a central theme of his campaign strategy. If the Biden campaign can successfully motivate voters on abortion over immigration, it could be their path to victory.
