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Published 27 July 2023

With less than six months to go until the Republican Iowa caucus, the presidential primary race is heating up. Although early polling shows a dominant lead for Donald Trump, this note explores whether any of the other candidates could - in potential - be a serious challenger to the former president. Out of the candidates with single-digit polling numbers, we conclude that Scott and Ramaswamy are the ones to watch.

Key takeaways

1. National polling gives Donald Trump a sizeable early lead in the race for the Republican nomination. The early favourite now leads his closest rival, Ron DeSantis, by 30pp nationwide.

2. The actual primary process is long and complicated, and Trump’s advantage by no means guarantees a victory. Three outcomes are in play and will depend on ongoing volatility, regional electoral maths, and possible polling error.

3. Iowa will be the first obstacle to the presidential hopefuls. Trump leads here too, while DeSantis struggles and Scott could prove to be an interesting outsider for the win

What is the state of play?

With the first US presidential primary election just 172 days away, campaign season is upon us again. While Joe Biden appears to face a quiet primary race, the Republican primary race, with 275 candidates, could not be more different. In this note, we take a closer look at how the race is shaping up and what polls can currently tell us about the road to 2024 for the Republican hopefuls. 

By any measure, Donald Trump is the clear favourite to win the Republican nomination. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages (see Figure 1), he currently has the support of approximately half of the Republican electorate and leads runner-up Ron DeSantis by 31pp. Betting markets, usually a good summary indicator of expert opinion, agree, currently estimating Trump’s chances of becoming the next US president at just over 30%. After early momentum following the November midterm elections, Trump’s closest competitor DeSantis has slid in the polls from approximately 40% to just 19% support among Republicans. Other notable candidates with significant support in the polls include former vice president Mike Pence (6.3%), Ohio businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (6.8%), former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley (3.6%), and Sen. Tim Scott (3.1%). 

Does that mean Trump’s lead is ‘insurmountable’, as some sources have suggested? This crucially depends on his competition. Here, DeSantis has achieved the most cut-through as of yet. A recent CBS News/YouGov poll found that 51% of Republican voters would consider supporting him for the nomination (compared to Trump’s 75%). His key strength is his perceived electability, with the same poll estimating that 85% of Republicans think that DeSantis could beat Biden. However, his campaign has been a rough ride so far, with a campaign launch plagued by tech issues and awkward media performances.

These types of uncertainties mean that DeSantis’ position as Trump’s main rival is far from uncontested. Several key contenders for the anti-Trump role are worth noting:

• Former Vice-President Mike Pence faces an uphill battle. Despite having a base level of support, specifically among evangelical Christians, his support in the Republican electorate as a whole is simply too low. His refusal to intervene in the electoral process on January 6th significantly damaged his support among the party’s rank-and-file, and he will need to make up a lot of ground (and significantly shift prevailing narratives) to become the main alternative to Trump.

• Nikki Haley’s campaign has started on slightly stronger footing. Only 60% of Americans currently know who she is, suggesting that her ceiling of support among Republicans may still be higher than her current polling numbers. Nevertheless, her key challenge is that she is better liked by moderate Republicans and it is currently unclear whether she will be able to appeal to enough of the more conservative party faithful to present a significant challenge to Trump or DeSantis.

• Senator Tim Scott is one of the other candidates hoping to rally the anti-Trump vote behind him, with POLITICO reporting that several wealthy donors are now considering backing Scott as a more traditional Republican alternative to both Trump and DeSantis.

• Finally, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is a potential dark horse, standing out as the only major candidate without political experience. Ramaswamy’s significant media exposure and campaign resources have propelled him to the top 5 of the race for the nomination. Moreover, although 38% of Republican voters haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion (according to this Morning Consult poll), 79% of voters who have heard of him also hold a favourable view of Ramaswamy. That’s a higher ratio than Trump, DeSantis, or anyone else in the race.

In short, national polling shows a clear lead for Trump, with DeSantis currently the most likely challenger. Scott, Haley, Pence, and Ramaswamy are all still in the race, but will have to pull off something special given their current single-digit polling numbers.

Why national polls do not tell the whole story

The first obstacle for any candidate hoping to win their party’s nomination is Iowa. Iowa is one of the few states to use a caucus system rather than a primary election to determine the winner of the state’s delegates. Caucuses involve a smaller number of participants compared to regular elections. Instead of casting ballots at polling stations, caucus-goers gather at designated locations, such as a school, church or community centre, to discuss and vote for their preferred candidates.

To secure support in the caucus a candidate needs an intricate ground game and voter mobilisation efforts. These organisational factors coupled with the unique primary process in Iowa make it difficult to capture a candidate's overall support through national polling alone. Polls conducted at the national level typically have larger sample sizes, allowing for more accurate predictions. However, Iowa's population is smaller, and the caucus involves a relatively small number of participants. This smaller sample size can introduce a higher margin of error, making it more challenging to accurately capture voter preferences.

There is a large disparity between how a candidate is polling nationally, within Iowa and the actual result of the caucus itself. A tumultuous 2020 Iowa Caucus for Democrats resulted in Bernie Sanders slightly edging out Pete Buttigieg in the final vote. But both national and Iowa polls had consistently shown the race between Sanders and Joe Biden. As the figure above shows, polling averages nationally and in Iowa underestimated support for Buttigieg and overestimated the support for Biden compared to the final result. Which leads to another factor polls can not take into account: the effect of the momentum gained from a win in Iowa.

Since the Iowa caucuses are traditionally the first contest in the primary season, quickly followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, the results from each state can reshape the trajectory of the entire primary season. A candidate who performs well in Iowa can gain momentum fueled media attention going into New Hampshire, while those who underperform may struggle to regain energy or relevancy. The increased media coverage and support that a win generates can lead to a positive feedback loop, where a candidate's success attracts more supporters and donors, propelling them further ahead. Momentum can be a critical factor in shaping the outcome of the race, with a domino effect often overriding national polling leads.

The momentum from a win in Iowa has propelled some underdog candidates to their parties nominations, such as Barack Obama in 2008. But a win does not automatically clear a path to the nomination. In some cases, a win in Iowa failed to translate into continued success in the primary season as candidates did not capitalise on this momentum.

• In the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus, Rick Santorum emerged as the surprise winner, despite trailing in national and statewide Iowa polls. Throughout the summer of 2011, Rick Perry consistently led in the polls in Iowa, and Mitt Romney was leading in the weeks prior to the caucuses. However, Santorum was not able to maintain the same level of support in subsequent contests and did not secure the nomination.

• The 2016 Iowa Republican Caucus saw Ted Cruz defeat Donald Trump, who was the frontrunner in national polls at that time. Within a few weeks of launching his campaign in the summer of 2015, Trump was leading in the national polls and was leading in Iowa in the final weeks. However, Cruz struggled to break into third in Iowa throughout the summer and only started to vie with Trump there in late fall of 2015. While Cruz's victory in Iowa gave him a significant boost, Trump went on to win the nomination due to his strong performance in subsequent contests.

Again, while Trump currently holds a commanding lead in both national and Iowa statewide polls, past caucuses show the ride is not always as smooth as polls might suggest. And vice versa, a win in Iowa does not guarantee a candidate to be the nominee. In fact, according to the Christian Science Monitor, prior to the 2016 caucus, Iowa caucus results do not always predict the eventual nominee:

Since 1972, there have been nine Democratic and seven Republican contested caucuses. Only five of the Democratic caucus winners and three of the Republican caucus winners have gone on to win their party’s nomination. With success rates of 55 and 43 percent respectively, it’s clear the Iowa caucus isn’t great at predicting presidential primary winners.

Trump favourite in Iowa, with Scott and Ramaswamy as interesting outsiders

So will any candidate be able to pull off a surprise in Iowa? There are a couple of key metrics to watch here, including national indicators of ‘candidate potential’ and Iowa-specific polling numbers.

Starting with the former, awareness and candidate favorability are the measures that pollsters keep a close eye on. Candidate awareness is an important precondition for winning over voters. However, candidates who trail in the polls tend to take a more optimistic view of low awareness metrics: if only more voters knew them, they’d be able to make up ground in the polls. Candidate favorability is the other obvious key indicator to watch. Figure 3 summarises the performance of major candidates by these two national indicators.

Based on these metrics alone, both Ramaswamy and Scott have a ceiling that is substantially higher than current polling would suggest. Although they are the two least well-known major candidates, 69% of likely Republican voters who have heard of Ramaswamy hold a favourable view of him. This figure is 62% for Scott. Both are only disliked by 16% of aware voters. These figures are comparable or even slightly better than DeSantis’ (liked by 68%, disliked by 22%), and Ramaswamy’s are on par with Trump’s (liked by 74%, disliked by 25%). Should Ramaswamy and Scott manage to improve their awareness among Republicans, these positive metrics suggest they’d be able to make up some ground in the polls.

Of course, these nationwide metrics are not everything. Iowa polling figures are a strong indicator of the candidates’ potential to pick up early momentum in the first Republican primary. So what do we know about Iowa polling? First of all, many polls are sponsored either directly by one of the main candidates’ campaigns or by an organization that is closely aligned with one of the candidates over the others. This makes reading the total set of polls quite difficult. For example, where McLaughlin & Associates, sponsored by the Trump campaign, have the Trump-DeSantis head-to-head at 60% vs 33%, WPA Intelligence, sponsored by pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down puts the same match-up at Trump 45%, DeSantis 43%.

If we look for more independent polling, data by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company (FiveThirtyEight rating: A) provides the most recent view of the state of play. Trump leads the pack on 46%, with DeSantis falling behind with 16%, followed by Scott (11%), Ramaswamy (6%), Haley (5%), and Pence (4%). Notably, Trump does best among younger Republicans, those without college degrees, and those with the most conservative views. Meanwhile, DeSantis performs better among college educated voters, men, and those who regularly attend religious services.

Scott is an interesting candidate to watch in Iowa. With just 12% of voters indicating that they would not consider him, it appears like he’s got significant room to grow in Iowa. His best demographics are college-educated women, voters between the ages of 55-64 and women over 45. Interestingly, he draws equally from moderates and from hard conservatives - a broader appeal than we’re seeing from Trump and DeSantis. Ramaswamy, on the other hand, still lacks the name recognition to convince a lot of Iowa voters. 34% of Iowa caucus-goers indicated that they need more information about him before deciding whether or not to support him for the Republican nomination.

All this suggests three things. Firstly, and rather obviously, Trump is still the strong favourite, both nationwide and in Iowa. Secondly, DeSantis has been slipping in the polls, and winning over Trump voters appears to be his only shot nationwide and in Iowa. Thirdly, Scott and Ramaswamy are the most interesting underdog candidates. Scott has got a good hand in Iowa, and there are signs that some major donors are starting to favour him over DeSantis as the main non-Trump candidate. Ramaswamy, on the other hand, has created some positive buzz, but his campaign will now need to take the next step. Although his metrics look and feel favourable, he will need to significantly boost the awareness of his candidacy and what he stands for among Republican voters.